Florence Area Growth Rate of Confirmed Cases

What Do These Graphs Show?

The first graph shows the 7-day rolling average (which smooths out the values) of the number of daily confirmed cases per 100,000 population. Focusing on new cases tells you what is happening now with the epidemic, and by weighting the value by the size of the population we are able to better judge the community impact, as well as better compare to other locations.

The second graph shows the growth rate, which measures the change in total cases from the day prior, expressed as a percentage. This measure tells you how rapidly the epidemic is growing. A reading of 100% would mean that the number of cases is doubling daily. Public health officials have been stressing the importance of “flattening the curve” through social distancing measures. This flattening would mean the growth rate would remain low. The first graph shows the 7-day average of the growth rate over time. A growth rate of zero is ideal, and when the growth rate is 5% or higher it is a significant concern as you can get exponential increases in cases.

The third graphic shows this another way, which is the number of days that cases will double. If cases double quickly that is a serious concern. Values for this on the graph close to the top, or with cases doubling in very few days, is a bad outcome.

The fourth graph shows the R-Naught values over time. R-Naught (also referred to as Ro, or the Reproductive Number) indicates the average number of people who are infected by each person who gets infected. If R-Naught is greater than 1 the epidemic will continue to be sustained. If R-Naught drops below 1 eventually the epidemic will cease to exist.