The Mexico SimSmoke Project

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In addition to the research in Mexico, the above video shows the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC)'s efforts to reduce tobacco consumption in Uruguay.

Early results from the MUSC Center for Global Health Faculty Pilot Project Grant program have been trickling in as researchers conduct their studies overseas, from Mexico to China. The latest comes from Michael Cummings, Ph.D., MPH, Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC). Cummings and his colleagues from the University of South Carolina, Georgetown University (see the latest study), and Mexico’s Institute of Public Health have developed a tobacco control policy model known as SimSmoke.

SimSmoke is used to examine the impact of past and future policies on smoking rates and smoking-attributable outcomes. It has been applied to 32 countries and eight states, and accurately predicts smoking rates and smoking-attributable outcomes in the absence of policy change. Cummings was instrumental in the early development of SimSmoke. As part of his study, SimSmoke examines the effect of implementing policies in compliance with the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC).

The Mexico SimSmoke model began in 2002 before Mexico signed the WHO-FCTC. Mexico’s model also predates a series of stricter policies consistent with the FCTC. In this study, SimSmoke uses three surveys conducted by the government of Mexico, as well as surveys conducted as part of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (ITC) at MUSC, where Cummings is the principal investigator.

Results from the SimSmoke model show that the policies implemented in Mexico since 2002 have been responsible for an almost 30 percent reduction in smoking rates. Following the policies outlined by the FCTC, the model shows that smoking prevalence can be reduced by another 40 percent.

Learn more at ITC-MUSC; and about MUSC’s efforts to reduce tobacco consumption in South Carolina.