University Updates on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

MUSC COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project

COVID-19 Status Summary for the Charleston metropolitan area (Charleston, Berkeley, and Dorchester Counties)

View information for the Florence area (Florence, Marion, Darlington, and Williamsburg Counties)

View information for the Lancaster metropolitan area (Lancaster and Chester Counties)

Updated 6/2/2020 | About This Project

MUSC COVID-19 Situation Assessment

Indicator Key Metric Threshold Metrics Status as of June 3
Growth in Number of Reported COVID-19 Infections Sustained reduction in growth of reported infections for Charleston region. GREEN – The 7-day average in growth of confirmed cases from day to day has been below 1%. YELLOW: 1.8%
YELLOW – The 7-day average in growth of confirmed cases from day to day is 1-5%
RED – The 7-day average in growth of confirmed cases from day to day is greater than 5%.
Sustained reduction in new cases Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period. (Qualify for small numbers) GREEN -There is a negative slope of the trend line (downward trajectory) for number of daily cases for past 14-days. RED – Increases in trajectory of new cases over past 14 days
YELLOW - There is a negative slope of the trend line (downward trajectory) for number of daily cases for the past 14-days, but not for the week prior.
RED – There is a positive slope of the trend line (upward trajectory) for number of daily cases for the 14-days.
Number of Reported COVID-19 Infections per 10,000 population per week Number of reported cases per week is manageable with regard to medical care and capacity for effective contract tracing GREEN – Number of reported cases per week less than 1 per 10,000 population 
(Population = 775,831: equivalent to 78 or fewer cases a week)
YELLOW; 124 cases reported week of 5/27-6/2
YELLOW – Number of reported cases per week is 1-5 per 1,000 population 
(Population = 775,831: equivalent to 78 to 388 cases a week)
RED – Number of reported cases per week greater than 5 per 1,000 population
(Population = 775,831: equivalent to greater than 338 cases a week)
Availability of Diagnostic Testing Diagnostic testing availability for all people with COVID-19 symptoms GREEN – 100% of those meeting criteria and seeking testing receive testing GREEN
YELLOW – 80%-99% of those meeting criteria and seeking testing receive testing
RED – Less than 80% of those meeting criteria and seeking testing receive testing
Speed of Diagnostic Testing in Returning Results Return of diagnostic test results is done in a timely manner and that allows for rapid contact tracing GREEN – Results returned within average of 2 days from sample collection GREEN
YELLOW – Results returned within average of 3-4 days from sample collection
RED – Results returned within average of 5 or more days from sample collection
Hospital Patient Care Hospitals have ability to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards GREEN – The number of COVID patients below 50% non-surge hospital and ICU bed capacity (have 89 ICU beds non-surge) GREEN
YELLOW – The number of COVID patients is 50-70% non-surge hospital and ICU bed capacity
RED – The number of COVID patients is above 70% non-surge hospital and ICU bed capacity
Social Distancing Social distancing recommendations at a population level are being followed. (N.B. Baseline is set from pre-COVID timeframe) GREEN – Increased at least 25% from baseline, and 2-week average is stable or continuing to increase YELLOW
YELLOW – 2-week trend reverting to baseline, and 2-week average is more than 25% of baseline
RED – 2-week trend reverting to baseline, and 2-week average is less than 25% of baseline
Identified super spreader events or cluster outbreaks Number of super spreader events or cluster outbreaks of significant magnitude (GT 10 cases in discrete social group or setting) in past two weeks. GREEN – None reported in past 2-weeks GREEN
YELLOW – 1-2 reported in past two weeks
RED – 3+ reported in past two weeks
Infection & Contact Tracing Ability to trace and monitor reported contacts of new COVID-19 cases in a timely manner. GREEN – S.C. DHEC/State able to conduct contact tracing within 2 calendar days of report More info needed
YELLOW – S.C. DHEC/State able to conduct contact tracing within 3-5 calendar days of report
RED – S.C. DHEC/State able to conduct contact tracing within 6 or more calendar days of report

Key Findings

  • The current 7-day average growth rate of new cases is 1.8 percent. This is a very low rate, although zero is desirable. This value increased very minimally from the prior week when it was 1.6 percent.
  • There have been 124 new cases reported since 5/27/2020. Given the size of the population in the Charleston Tri-County, this is a moderately low value.
  • The number of reported deaths in the Charleston area totals 31 since the initiation of the epidemic. There were 2 new deaths since the last report on 5/27/2020.
  • The Charleston area has 1.36 confirmed cases per thousand population as of 6/3/2020. This is a low number, compared to many other locations in the U.S.
    Mobility has increased in the past week, and is over 80% of the level of mobility prior to the initiation of the epidemic. If social distancing is not maintained this could lead to increases in COVID-19 cases in the weeks ahead. It will take several weeks for new infections to be detected.
  • The MUSC University Hospital continues to have adequate capacity to treat current and expected COVID-19 patients in the medium term.

COVID-19 Projections for South Carolina

Modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) shows projections for South Carolina assuming full social distancing through May 2020.

COVID-19 Projections for the MUSC University Hospital

We have developed a mathematical model that estimates the number of symptomatic cases, and number of patients seeking care at MUSC University Hospital over time for the current wave of infections. Results are broken out by standard and ICU beds.

Graph showing the number of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 per week