Data show current spread of COVID19 among children as school begins

After reviewing the data for how well masking worked in schools last year to reduce the spread of COVID-19, as well as looking at the current high rates of community transmission amid the Delta variant surge, leaders at the Medical University of South Carolina are encouraged that some school districts are requiring masks as the school year begins.

In the last month, cases among Charleston County School District students have already reached two-thirds the number of cases that were recorded during the entire fall semester of 2020, and school hasn’t even started yet. Right now, community transmission is high, and the Delta variant is more contagious than previous versions. And while it’s true that a small percentage of children will end up sick enough to be hospitalized, Allison Eckard, M.D., points out that as a greater number of children become infected, there will be a corresponding rise in the number of very sick children.

 

MUSC Children’s Health is seeing that now, said Eckard, the director of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at MUSC. She also reported that doctors are seeing sicker children now with the Delta variant than with previous strains, similar to what other pediatric hospitals around the country are seeing. Last week, she said, the hospital was caring for three unvaccinated teens on ventilators. A fourth teen died of complications from COVID-19, she said.

However, the hopeful news is that studies are showing that masks work to reduce spread. Eckard shared a report from the ABC Science Collaborative that looked at COVID-19 cases among more than 864,000 students in 100 North Carolina school districts during the spring 2021 semester.

With masking, the rate of transmission of COVID-19 at school was about 1 in 3,000 people, according to the report. Although more than 6,400 students caught COVID-19 in the community, only 308 students went on to become infected in school.

Similarly, in the Charleston County School District in the fall 2020 semester, only 1.3% of in-person students and staff became infected, and there were only a handful of in-school transmission events. When schools returned in January after the winter break, the first week of school saw the greatest number of cases. Studies have shown that when community transmission increases, so does in-school transmission, Eckard said.

A separate group in North Carolina, a university consortium dubbed COVSIM, modeled the expected spread of COVID-19 with and without masks and random sample testing of students. The group determined that without masks and testing, between 75% and 90% of susceptible students would become infected within three months, with susceptible students defined as those who are unvaccinated or haven’t already had COVID-19.

Charleston County students are scheduled to return to school on Wednesday, with a mask requirement in place until Oct. 15.