MUSC COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project Midlands

Epidemiology Intelligence Project map

COVID-19 Status Summary for the Midlands area (Kershaw, Fairfield, and Richland Counties)

View information for the Lancaster metropolitan area (Lancaster and Chester Counties)

View information for the Charleston metropolitan area (Charleston, Berkeley, and Dorchester Counties)

View information for the Florence area (Florence, Marion, Darlington, and Williamsburg Counties)

Updated 11/30/2022 | About This Project

View Methods and Metrics Description

 Summary of weekly data for the Midlands area. 

This image shows recent stats for the Midlands area: 47 cases per day per 100,000 population for a 7-day average; test positivity for a 7-day average is 10.7 percent; percentage of total population vaccinated at two doses is 61 percent; percentage of total population boosted at 3 doses is 27 percent; percent of hospital beds being used for COVID-19 care is 5.5 percent; weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 population is 13.

The number of weekly COVID-19 infections officially reported is vastly under-counted due to home testing.

It is estimated that the number of actual COVID-19 cases is 6 to 10 times the number officially reported.

Based on these estimates, last week (November 20th-November 26th) in the Midlands area:

  • About 1 percent of the population were infected with COVID-19
  • 2,120 to 3,533 people were infected with COVID-19
  • 1 out of every 143 to 238 people were infected with COVID-19
This graph shows 30 cases per day in the Midlands area for the week of August 21 through August 27.

 

What does the graph about tell us?

  • We recently had a surge of COVID-19 cases which began in the middle of May. Current data suggests that the surge is subsiding.
  • The week of July 26 had the highest number of officially recorded COVID-19 infections with 69 people infected per day for every 100,000 people. After several weeks of similarly high values, we are now seeing a decline in COVID-19 infections.
  • As of last week, we had 10.0 cases per day per 100,000 people. Since most people now test for COVID-19 with home test kits only about 10 to 17 percent of infections are officially recorded.
    • Adjusting for under-counting due to home testing, it is likely that the actual number of infections per 100,000 people per day is between 60 and 100. Those numbers are equal to less than 1 percent of the population infected every week.

      Final Version of long covid summary.

What does the graph above tell us?

  • This graphic compares the officially reported COVID-19 infections from testing in the Midlands area to the amount of COVID-19 virus detected in wastewater from a sewage treatment plant in the Midlands area.
  • Detection of COVID-19 from wastewater often picks up increases and decreases earlier than from COVID-19 testing data. The most current data shows minimal increases in case numbers. The volume of COVID-19 virus detected in the wastewater is fairly low with minimal changes in the past few weeks.
  • Note that the wastewater testing is from a sewage treatment plant that does not serve the entire Midlands are, and the testing data comes from the entire population of the Midlands area (Kershaw, Richland, and Fairfield counties).

This graph shows that the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases in the Midlands area is high.

What does the graph above tell us?

  • This graphic shows the trends in the daily number of COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic for our area.
  • There have been 5 distinct surges. We have had a surge in both the summer and the winter each year.
  • The most recent surge was one of the longest we have experienced to date.
  • Bear in mind that the recent surge was different from past surges in several important ways:
    • In the recent surge there was significant under-counting of cases due to home testing for COVID-19.
    • Mitigation strategies such as mask use and distancing were much lower than in past surges.
    • The current predominant COVID-19 variant (BA.5) is the most effective variant yet at infecting people who are vaccinated, and reinfecting people who got COVID-19 in the past.
    • We now have access to medications that can reduce the severity of illness from COVID-19.
    • The death rate from COVID-19 is now much lower, due largely to immunity from vaccinations and prior infections. Regardless, there are now 460 people dying a day from COVID-19 in the United States, equivalent to 167,900 people a year.

COVID-19 Variants Based on Genetic Sequencing Conducted by the MUSC Molecular Pathology Laboratory. 

View Latest Covid-19 Variants of Interest:

MUSC COVID-19 Situation Assessment:  

View Methods and Metrics Description

Metric Status for the week of November 20th-November 26th
Weekly Change of Reported COVID-19 Infections
INCREASING: +6%
Trajectory of documented cases (Increasing or Decreasing)
RED:
 Number of Reported COVID-19 Cases in last week
YELLOW: 338 new cases reported  
Diagnostic Testing Availability
GREEN
Return of Diagnostic Test Results
GREEN
Hospital Capacity to treat Critical Patients
GREEN
New Covid-19 Hospital Admissions per 100k population (7 day average) GREEN

COVID-19 Projections for South Carolina

Modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) shows projections for South Carolina.