MUSC COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project Lancaster

COVID-19 Status Summary for the Lancaster metropolitan area (Lancaster and Chester Counties)

View information for the Florence area (Florence, Marion, Darlington, and Williamsburg Counties)

View information for the Charleston metropolitan area (Charleston, Berkeley, and Dorchester Counties)

View information for the Midlands area (Kershaw, Fairfield, and Richland Counties)

Updated 9/28/2022 | About This Project

View Methods and Metrics Description 

Summary of weekly data for the Lancaster area. 

This image shows recent stats for the Charleston area: 30.2 cases per day per 100,000 population for a 7-day average; test positivity for a 7-day average is 14.5 percent; percentage of total population vaccinated at two doses is 48 percent; percentage of total population boosted at 3 doses is 20 percent; percent of hospital beds being used for COVID-19 care is 7.3 percent; weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 population is 8.

The number of weekly COVID-19 infections officially reported is vastly under-counted due to home testing.

It is estimated that the number of actual COVID-19 cases is 6 to 10 times the number officially reported.

Based on these estimates, last week (September 18th through September 24th) in the Lancaster area:

  • 1 percent of the population were infected with COVID-19
  • 706 to 1,176 people were infected with COVID-19
  • 1 out of every 111 to 185 people were infected with COVID-19
     

Trend in cases from March through current month in Lancaster area.

What does the graph above tell us?

  • We recently had a surge of COVID-19 cases which began in the middle of May. Current data suggests that the surge is subsiding.
  • Beginning in early August the number of officially recorded COVID-19 infections peaked at 49 cases per day for every 100,000 people and has begun to slowly decline.
  • As of last week, we had 12.9 cases per day per 100,000 people. Since most people now test for COVID-19 with home test kits only about 10 to 17 percent of infections are officially recorded.
    • Adjusting for under-counting due to home testing, it is likely that the actual number of infections per 100,000 people per day is between 77 and 129. Those numbers are equal to 1 percent of the population infected every week.
       

This graph shows that the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases in the Lancaster area is medium.

What does the graph above tell us?

  • This graphic shows the trends in the daily number of COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic for our area.
  • There have been 5 distinct surges. We have had a surge in both the summer and the winter each year.
  • The most recent surge was one of the longest we have experienced to date.
  • Bear in mind that the recent surge was different from past surges in several important ways:
    • In the recent surge there was significant under-counting of cases due to home testing for COVID-19.
    • Mitigation strategies such as mask use and distancing were much lower than in past surges.
    • The current predominant COVID-19 variant (BA.5) is the most effective variant yet at infecting people who are vaccinated, and reinfecting people who got COVID-19 in the past.
    • We now have access to medications that can reduce the severity of illness from COVID-19.
    • The death rate from COVID-19 is now much lower, due largely to immunity from vaccinations and prior infections. Regardless, there are now 460 people dying a day from COVID-19 in the United States, equivalent to 167,900 people a year.

COVID-19 Variants Based on Genetic Sequencing Conducted by the MUSC Molecular Pathology Laboratory. 

Latest Covid-19 Variants of Interest:

MUSC COVID-19 Situation Assessment 

View Methods and Metrics Description

Metric Status for the week of September 18th-24th
Weekly Change of Reported COVID-19 Infections
DECREASING: -31%
Trajectory of documented cases (Increasing or Decreasing)
GREEN
 Number of Reported COVID-19 cases in last week
RED: 118 new cases reported
Diagnostic Availability Testing
GREEN
Return of Diagnostic Test Results
GREEN
Hospital Capacity to treat Critical Patients
GREEN
New Covid-19 Hospital Admissions per 100k population (7 day average) GREEN

COVID-19 Projections for South Carolina

Modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) shows projections for South Carolina.